State Officials Hurricane-Ready After Storm Increase Predictions

The Atlantic hurricane basin is highly active this weekend, and perhaps no one is more worried than the employees of the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management.

The National Hurricane Center late Friday upgraded Tropical Storm Harvey from a tropical depression. While Harvey is forecast to remain in South America, there is plenty of other tropical action waiting in the wings. At least two tropical waves in the Atlantic have more than a 40 percent chance of tropical development, according to the center.

Back at home, we've seen plenty of record setting heat waves this summer. So with over two months left in the Atlantic hurricane season, it's no wonder that some are nervous about what the remainder of the hurricane season could mean for the Jersey Shore.

There are plenty of signs of doom and gloom. Earlier this month, Patch reported that . In fact, the water temperature off the Ship Bottom coast was 78 degrees as of Friday evening.

And the experts say an increase in tropical systems appears likely as well. On Aug. 4, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration increased the number of expected number of named storms to 14 to 19. In May, NOAA originally forecast 12 to 18 named storms.

And their confidence in the forecast has also increased.

“We updated the anticipated number of named storms and increased our confidence from 65% to 85% that the season will be active,” NOAA spokeswoman Susan Buchanan told Patch.

One of NOAA's lead forecasters, Dr. Gerry Bell, says that the ocean and atmosphere are primed for high activity until the end of the season.

“Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season,” he said earlier this month.

But forecasters say it isn't easy to tell what path these storms will take.

“This outlook is not a landfall forecast," Buchanan said. "Hurricane track depends on atmospheric conditions in place at the time a storm develops and moves toward the coast.” 

Meteorologists say a lot has to happen in order for a storm to reach the New Jersey coast line.

"Yes, the increase in activity will result in slightly higher odds of a storm reaching our area, but I think most of the storms will curve out to sea after the North Carolina coast,” Nynjpaweather.com Meteorologist Steven DiMartino .

And while there is a lot of uncertainty, it doesn't stop the New Jersey's Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM) from preparing for any possible storms.

“We're in constant contact with the National Weather Service offices in Mount Holly and Upton, New York," NJ OEM's Mary Goepfert said. "They monitor and watch the storms, and tell us what impact they could have on our area. Once a storm gets closer then it becomes a coordinated effort with the National Hurricane Center as well, but we're always focused on the impact a storm could have on New Jersey.”

After such a quiet start to the hurricane season, why was there an increase in the number of expected storms?

NOAA blames the possible redevelopment of a La Nina pattern, the tropical multi-decadal signal, and of course, the exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures. NOAA says that current temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean rank the third warmest on record.

“Everyone who lives in a coastal community should be prepared throughout hurricane season," Buchanan said. "Even people living inland could experience high wind and flooding from a hurricane as it moves onshore.”

The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management agrees.

“Our citizens need to maintain a situational awareness throughout the peak of the hurricane season, which runs from August through late September,” Goepfert said.

And if the forecast calls for a tropical system, the experts warn that it should be taken seriously.

“We often forget that even if a tropical storm hits we'd be dealing with a lot of problems," said Goepfert, a 22-year OEM veteran. "Our normal lives would be disrupted. We could have power outages, and not be able to travel places like the store because of flooding.”

NJOEM reminds all residents to read through the information offered on their website about hurricane safety. And the NJOEM has unveiled a new text message based alert system that can be accessed through their website: Ready.nj.gov. The site offers a sign up for emergency information through e-mails and text messages. The system is reserved for serious situations only, according to the NJOEM.

But of course, as the old proverb says, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

“The biggest thing I can urge people to do is to think ahead of time," Goepfert said. "Be ready to leave your home and don't forget what things like important paperwork and medications that you'd need to take if an evacuation order is issued for your community.”